Back

Clinical Chemistry

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Clinical Chemistry's content profile, based on 22 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Ruling In and Ruling Out Sepsis Using Likelihood Ratios of a Host Response Assay

Navalkar, K. A.; Wani, P.; Davis, R. F.; Cermelli, S.; Dietrich, M.; von der Forst, M.; Becker, S. L.; Benthien, S.; Baumann, E.; Zeiner, C.; Lepper, P. M.; Garnacho-Montero, J.; Canton-Bulnes, M. L.; Fernandez-Galilea, A.; Luis Garcia-Garmendia, J. L.; Estella, A.; Miller, R. R.; Schultz, M. J.; Rothman, R.; Burke, J.; Patel, G.; Parada, J.; Yager, T. D.; Brandon, R. B.

2026-06-01 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354374 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
19.0%
Show abstract

Overview: SeptiCyte RAPID is an FDA-cleared gene expression test that quantifies host immune response to aid in the diagnosis of sepsis. The test yields a score (the SeptiScore) ranging from 0-15, distributed across four bands (1-4) based on increased likelihood of sepsis. Each band can be characterized by average positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+, LR- respectively) for the discrimination of sepsis versus the non-infectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Methods: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from a combined cohort of critically ill patients suspected of sepsis (N=889), recruited across 19 hospitals in the USA and Europe. The analysis quantified the LR+ and LR- parameters as a function of SeptiScore, for discrimination of sepsis vs. SIRS in patients admitted to ICU. Hypotheses: (1) The likelihood ratio (LR) framework provides a clinically useful interpretive approach that complements the previously used SeptiScore banding scheme; (2) Low Band 1 SeptiScores are associated with sufficiently small LR- to support the use of SeptiCyte RAPID as a rule-out test for sepsis; (3) High Band 4 SeptiScores are associated with sufficiently large LR+ to support the use of SeptiCyte RAPID as a rule-in test for sepsis; and (4) SeptiScore-derived LR+ and LR- values can be combined with estimates of pre-test probability (derived from patient characteristics and/or other diagnostic tests) to generate individualized, patient-specific post-test probabilities of sepsis. Results: The SeptiCyte RAPID test demonstrates strong diagnostic performance in distinguishing sepsis from SIRS. The likelihood ratios across different score bands provide clear clinical utility: the median LR+ was 3.26 (range 2.57-4.24) for Band 3, and 6.97 (range 4.35-15.57) for Band 4 providing evidence toward ruling in sepsis at high SeptiScores. Conversely, the median LR- was 0.16 (range 0.14-0.20) for Band 2 and 0.085 (range 0.014-0.16) for Band 1, providing evidence toward ruling out sepsis at low SeptiScores. A higher-resolution analysis of SeptiCyte RAPID performance confirmed these trends by evaluating LR+ and LR- at specific values within each band. The sepsis group was further stratified according to whether patients were classified as blood-culture positive (BC+) or blood culture negative (BC-), and the detailed LR+ and LR- analyses were repeated. A monotonic increase in likelihood ratio with increasing SeptiScore was consistently observed, independent of whether sepsis patients were culture-positive, culture-negative, or unstratified with respect to blood culture status. Conclusion: High SeptiScores have correspondingly high LR+ values, and low SeptiScores have correspondingly low LR- values, both of which may have clinical utility. High likelihood ratios for band 4 SeptiScores, which precede traditional microbiology results, may provide clinicians with early confidence of a sepsis diagnosis and microbiology diagnostic stewardship. Low likelihood ratios for band 1 SeptiScores may prompt clinicians to consider an alternate diagnosis to sepsis. Such results, obtained early in the diagnostic workup process, may lead to fewer missed diagnoses and more efficient use of hospital resources.

2
Detection of Pancreatic Cancer Using a Methylation-Specific PCR-Based Multi-Cancer Early Detection Test

Pham, H. T.; Bussey, K. J.; Oshiro, M. M.; Rounseville, M.; Moses, M.; Zulbaran-Rojas, A.; Nguyen, V.; Bernert, R. A.; Routh, J.; Watts, G.; Block, G. D.; Fisher, W. E.; Nelson, M. A.

2026-05-31 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.05.27.728292 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
8.4%
Show abstract

ContextPancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is an aggressive malignancy often diagnosed at advanced stages due to the lack of early clinical symptoms. DNA methylation alterations arise early in PDAC tumorigenesis and may serve as promising biomarkers for blood-based cancer detection. ObjectiveTo evaluate the performance of EPISEEK, a laboratory-developed blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) assay, for detecting PDAC across disease stages. DesignA retrospective cohort study included 97 patients with stage I-IV PDAC and 201 asymptomatic healthy controls. Sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve (AUC), and stage-specific performance were assessed. EPISEEK-MCED performance was also compared with CA 19-9 alone and in combination with CA 19-9. ResultsEPISEEK-MCED classified 65 of 97 PDAC cases as positive, corresponding to an observed sensitivity of 70.1% (95% CI, 60.3% - 78.3%) at 99.5% specificity. The assay demonstrated strong discrimination between PDAC cases and healthy controls, with an AUC of 0.916 (95% CI, 0.88 - 0.952). Sensitivity increased with advancing stage while remaining substantial in early-stage disease, measuring 53.6% for stage I and 65.1% for stage II PDAC, 100% for stage III and 94.7% for stage IV. Across stages, EPISEEK-MCED outperformed CA 19-9 alone, particularly in early-stage disease. Combined analysis of EPISEEK-MCED and CA 19-9 further improved detection performance, achieving sensitivity of 57.1% and 81.4% for stage I and II, respectively. ConclusionsEPISEEK-MCED demonstrated high specificity and sensitivity for PDAC detection across disease stages, including early-stage disease. Combining EPISEEK-MCED with CA19-9 further improved performance, supporting its clinical utility for PDAC detection.

3
Analytical Validation of Minimally Invasive Capillary Blood Microsampling using Tasso+ for Multiplexed Neurological Biomarkers

Swann, O.; Hicks, S.; Lynch, C.; Wallman-Jones, A.; Shoai, M.; Mulvaney, R.; Fernandes Gomes, B.; Kodosaki, E.; Tecilla, M.; Ghajari, M.; Jones, B.; Kemp, S.; TBI-REPORTER Biomarker group, ; Sylvester, R.; Cross, M.; Stokes, K.; Wilson, M. G.; Menon, D. K.; Heslegrave, A.; Zetterberg, H.; Sharp, D. J.; Parker, T. D.

2026-05-15 neurology 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353201 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
7.0%
Show abstract

Blood-based biomarkers are increasingly used to investigate brain health, but collecting venous blood is difficult in remote and field settings. Capillary microsampling offers a practical alternative, although the ability to delay processing and its agreement with gold-standard venous blood require validation. We evaluated Tasso+, a minimally invasive upper-arm capillary blood collection system, for measuring neurological and host-response biomarkers in plasma and serum during an exercise-based protocol. Sampling occurred before, immediately after, and approximately 24-to-36 hours after exercise; Tasso+ samples were processed with or without a 72-hour room-temperature delay. Tasso+ samples were compared with matched venous blood, and Capitainer SEP10 dried plasma spots were also evaluated, using Quanterix Simoa and Alamar Biosciences NULISAseq CNS panel. Tasso+ enabled reliable measurement of several key biomarkers, including GFAP and NfL, even after delayed processing. These findings support capillary microsampling for neurological biomarker studies where venepuncture is challenging, including field-based research and participant-led remote sampling.

4
Measles Whole Genome Sequencing by an Illumina Tiled Amplification Method

Zubach, V.; Ashfaq, S.; Van Driel, S.; Kaplen, B.; Peters, G.; Laminman, V.; Go, A.; Bonner, C.; Graham, M.; Hiebert, J.

2026-05-16 genomics 10.64898/2026.05.13.724913 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.9%
Show abstract

Measles virus remains a significant global health threat, and despite the availability of an effective vaccine, measles cases continue to increase worldwide in recent years. Genomic surveillance has become an essential tool for monitoring virus circulation and investigating outbreaks. Here, we describe a wet-laboratory method for whole-genome sequencing of measles virus using a tiled amplicon approach and Illumina sequencing technology. A previously published Oxford Nanopore-based tiled primer scheme was adapted to include both circulating measles genotypes and for use on the Illumina platform. Two Illumina library preparation kits, Illumina DNA Prep (IDP) and Nextera XT (XT), were evaluated for performance. The IDP kit demonstrated more complete genomes and consistent genome coverage compared with XT. Using quantified reference genomes, the limit of detection was determined to be 10,000 genome copies for genotype B3 and D8. Sequence accuracy was evaluated using previously characterized clinical samples and showed high concordance. This method provides a reliable and sensitive approach for measles virus whole-genome sequencing using Illumina platforms and is suitable for genomic surveillance applications.

5
Development and validation of a dynamic risk stratification tool for predicting multidrug-resistant bacterial infections in ICU patients: A clinical prediction model and web-based calculator

Ye, L.; Lyu, B.; Yang, Q.; Mou, X.; Nawawonganun, R.; Laohasiriwong, W.

2026-05-26 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.23.26353927 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.8%
Show abstract

Background: Multi-drug resistant Bacterial (MDRB) Infections in the intensive care units (ICUs) substantially elevate patient mortality, prolong hospital stays, and impose heavy healthcare cost burdens. Existing predictive models for ICU-acquired MDRB infection predominantly focus on static admission-risk assessment, lacking the capacity to leverage longitudinal treatment data for dynamic risk re-stratification during the ICU stay. Meanwhile, most models suffer from poor clinical interpretability, overreliance on hard-to-collect biomarkers, or absence of deployable clinical tools, limiting real-world translation. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a parsimonious, interpretable tool based on routine cumulative data to guide timely intervention. This study aimed to develop a interpretable model with a web calculator to improve clinical applicability. Methods: In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of ICU inpatients at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dali University between January 1, 2023, and January 1, 2026. Using the create Data Partition function in R software (random seed = 42), the dataset was stratified and divided into a training group and a validation group in a 7:3 ratio. Feature selection was performed using the Boruta algorithm to validate variable rationality. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and visualized as a nomogram, and its performance was compared with six machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, XG Boost, Neural Network, etc.). Model validation was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), and SHAP value interpretation. Finally, an online R Shiny calculator was developed based on the final model. Results: A total of 3,631 patients were enrolled and divided into a training group (n=2,543) and a validation group (n=1,088) using stratified random sampling. Five independent predictors were identified in the training group, which were hypertension combined with diabetes, antibiotic types, ventilator days, urinary catheter days, and PCT abnormality times. The Logistic regression model achieved an AUC of 0.772 (95%CI: 0.733-0.812) in the validation group, outperforming XG Boost (0.763) and Random Forest (0.703). The model demonstrated excellent calibration (Hosmer-Leme show {chi}{superscript 2} = 1.94, P = 0.9829) and positive net clinical benefit across threshold probabilities of 0%-40%. SHAP analysis aligned with regression-derived variable importance rankings, confirming predictor contributions. An open-access online calculator was successfully deployed (https://dongfangshao666.shinyapps.io/MDR_shiny2/), enabling real-time individualized risk stratification at the bedside. Conclusion: This study developed and validated a dynamic, interpretable multi-drug-resistant bacterial infection risk prediction model requiring only five routinely collected clinical indicators. The model balances robust predictive performance with high transparency, overcoming key limitations of prior tools. The accompanying web calculator supports dynamic risk reassessment throughout the ICU stay, facilitating precise antimicrobial stewardship, targeted infection control interventions, and optimized resource allocation, bridging the gap between statistical modeling and frontline clinical decision-making.

6
Interpretable morphology mapping of peripheral blood leukocytes using annotation-efficient artificial intelligence

Liu, Z.; Castillo, S. P.; Han, X.; Sun, X.; Hu, Z.; Yuan, Y.

2026-05-26 pathology 10.64898/2026.05.22.725537 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.4%
Show abstract

BackgroundPeripheral blood smears (PBS) review is labor-intensive, subjective, and challenging for rare or morphologically heterogeneous cell types in hematologic malignancies. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers a scalable alternative, but broader clinical translation is constrained by annotation burden and limited interpretability. MethodsWe developed an interpretable, annotation-efficient AI framework that learns leukocyte morphology through a two-stage process: label-free representation learning to construct a morphological embedding space, followed by supervised fine-tuning for cell type and morphological attribute classification. The model was trained and evaluated on 5,952 PBS images from cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, including blast cells, and 17,092 images from public sources. Active learning strategies were assessed to improve label efficiency, and interpretability was examined using saliency and embedding visualization. An interactive web application, HemoSight, was developed to support clinical review. FindingsThe framework achieved a macro-F1 score of 0{middle dot}96 for 9-way leukocyte classification on the internal test split and 0{middle dot}83 on the held-out patient cohort. Active learning substantially reduced annotation requirements, reaching peak performance with only 13{middle dot}3% of available labels and significantly improving learning efficiency across 8 of 9 cell types. The model generalized to classifying 11 leukocyte morphological attributes with a mean F1 score of 85{middle dot}8% and revealed structured morphological landscapes. Saliency maps, embedding visualizations, and the HemoSight application enabled transparent morphological inspection of model predictions, supporting confidence in model behavior and feasibility for clinical integration. InterpretationOur framework enables scalable, annotation-efficient, and interpretable modeling of leukocyte morphology, supporting the integration of AI-assisted PBS review for hematopathology workflows. FundingSeed funding from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. Research in ContextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSPeripheral blood smear review is essential for diagnosing and monitoring hematologic malignancies, but manual case review is time-consuming and variable, particularly for rare or abnormal leukocyte types. Automated hematology analyzers are widely used to flag abnormal cells; however, they provide limited morphological insight and often require frequent manual correction, especially in cancer settings where disease and treatment alter cell appearance. Previous artificial intelligence approaches for leukocyte classification have shown promise, but most rely on fully supervised learning, require extensive expert annotation, focus on a limited set of cell types, and frequently exclude diagnostically important rare cells such as blasts. Interpretability is inconsistently addressed, and few studies provide tools that allow clinicians to inspect and interpret model outputs within routine workflows. Added value of this studyThis study introduces an annotation-efficient framework trained on a large collection of peripheral blood smear images, including cancer patient samples with hematopathologist-verified rare cell types such as blasts. The framework learns leukocyte morphology from unlabeled images and adapts to multiple classification tasks with minimal expert labeling. Performance is evaluated on both internal test splits and a held-out patient cohort to provide a realistic estimate of generalization. Iterative, uncertainty-guided annotation substantially reduces labeling requirements while improving learning efficiency across most leukocyte classes. Beyond cell-type classification, the framework is extended to 11 clinically relevant morphological attributes and reveals a structured morphological landscape. These capabilities are integrated into a web application, HemoSight, enabling real-time inference and transparent morphological inspection of predictions within hematopathology workflows. Implications of all the available evidenceAdvancing artificial intelligence for hematology requires methods that reduce expert labeling demands, provide interpretable outputs, and perform reliably across clinically diverse patient samples. This study shows that learning from largely unlabeled data combined with iterative expert annotation can support scalable and flexible modeling of leukocyte morphology for classification tasks. Integrating quantitative predictions and interactive visualization supports the use of artificial intelligence as an assistive tool for diagnostic peripheral blood smear review, with potential to improve efficiency, consistency, and reviewer confidence.

7
Development of a Novel Blood-Based Assay for Brain-Derived Tau and Its Validation in Traumatic Brain Injury

Balogun, W. G.; Zeng, X.; Nafash, M. N.; Sehrawat, A.; Shi, R.; Svirsky, S. E.; Okonkwo, D. O.; Puccio, A. M.; Karikari, T. K.

2026-06-10 neurology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354965 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.3%
Show abstract

Brain-derived tau (BD-tau) is an emerging blood-based biomarker for neurodegeneration, yet there are currently limited well validated BD-tau assays available for research and clinical use. To enhance access to this vital biomarker for neurological disorders including traumatic brain injury (TBI), we developed a novel blood-based immunoassay for BD-tau on the ultra-sensitive Quanterix HD-X platform using Single Molecule Array technology. Analytical validation assessed dilution linearity, specificity, precision, detection limits, and spike recovery, each recording robust metrics in agreement with international expert recommendations. The assay demonstrated robust validation metrics, achieving between-run stability of 95% when analyzing aliquots from six independent plasma and serum samples across five analytical runs. It also showed strong dilution linearity when diluted four-fold and achieved over 90% recovery when spiked with cerebrospinal fluid. Next, we evaluated the clinical utility of the assay in cohorts of individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI), where strong performances were recorded whether using the 2-step or 3-step assay formats ({rho}= 0.94; p < 0.0001). Furthermore, plasma BD-tau distinguished samples from TBI patients based on time from injury and severity (AUC=0.93). Plasma BD-tau differentiated between favorable and unfavorable functional outcomes in the acute-severe group. Our findings underscore the significant potential of the BD-tau assay as a biomarker for TBI in the severe phase.

8
Addressing the Global Diagnostics Gap for Childhood Leukemias: A Global, Multisite Type 2 Hybrid Validation Study of Nanopore-based Adaptive Sampling Whole Genome Sequencing

Alexander, T. B.; Islam, R.; Aijaz, J.; Achterberg, T.; Bolous, N.; Cammel, K.; de Ridder, J.; Geyer, J.; Gray, S.; Groenewegen, N.; Hussain, S.; Imran, S.; Jamal, S.; Kar, S.; Kanavy, D.; Mansoor, N.; Parihar, M.; Saha, V.; Tops, B.; van Tuil, M.; Wilkins, D.; Weck, K.; Wu, G.; Zhou, L.; Kester, L.; Wang, J. R.; Bhakta, N.

2026-05-21 hematology 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353434 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.2%
Show abstract

Background: Modern therapy for childhood and adolescent leukemia requires accurate risk classification of genomic subtype. Although short-read next-generation sequencing (NGS)- based approaches provide comprehensive clinical diagnostics in limited, highly resourced settings, they remain expensive, slow, and inaccessible to most children worldwide. Transformative approaches are needed to improve diagnostic classification for leukemia globally. Methods: We simultaneously continued to develop an analytical pipeline NASVar (Nanopore variant calling for adaptive sampling), and conducted a multicenter, type-two hybrid clinical validation study of an Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) adaptive-sampling whole-genome sequencing (asWGS) assay across hospitals with varying diagnostic resources. In preparation for implementation, a global panel developed a leukemia-based standardized gene set and consensus laboratory-developed test (LDT) validation guidelines. Measures of assay effectiveness compared to both conventional and orthogonal NGS methods, where available, were simultaneously collected with data to measure the implementation outcomes of feasibility, fidelity, appropriateness, and cost. Results: All four centers successfully completed the LDT validation, with minimal adaptations required for regulatory compliance. A total of 457 specimens were sequenced (331 B-ALL, 83 AML, 43 T-ALL). For the 210 B-ALL cases with locally resolved genomic subtypes defined by DNA alterations, asWGS was 100% concordant (210/210). Cases locally defined as B-other were resolved via asWGS with disease-defining DNA alterations in 47% (49/105) of cases. An additional 41% (43/105) of locally defined B-other cases were classified by incorporation of DNA methylation, and all 16 B-ALL patient-derived xenograft controls were correct, for a total of 96% (318/331) of all B-ALL cases in the cohort resolved with single assay asWGS. For AML, 97% (56/58) of cases with locally resolved genomic subtypes were identified by automated asWGS analysis, while an additional two cases were identified after targeted manual review. At Indus Hospital in Pakistan, the B-ALL and AML diagnostic genomic subtype yield increased from 28% with local standard of care diagnostic testing, to 84% with asWGS. The cost of reagents and consumables in the United States, assuming pooled three-plexing, was $343/sample. Based on the combined hybrid validation results, all centers are independently preparing for clinical return of results. Conclusions: ONT asWGS was successfully validated as a clinical assay in four diverse hospital settings. As a single, multi-omic platform that delivers value across the continuum of high-resource to resource-limited contexts, the approach offers a disruptive solution to address the global equity gap in cancer diagnostics.

9
Sequential application of time-stratified demographic, vital, clinical-laboratory and microbiology variables for accurate and rapid identification of sepsis

Navalkar, K. A.; Garnacho-Montero, J.; Canton-Bulnes, M. L.; Garcia-Garmendia, J. L.; Estella, A.; Fernandez-Galilea, A.; Blanco, I.; Estecha-Foncea, M. A.; Gordillo-Resina, M.; Rodriguez-Gomez, J.; Pineda-Capitan, J. J.; Martinez-Fernandez, C.; Escoresca-Ortega, A.; Amaya-Villar, R.; Mora-Ordonez, J.; Gonzalez-Soto, S.; Gutierrez-Pizarraya, A.; Balk, R.; Miller, R. R.; Burke, J. P.; Patel, G.; Parada, J. P.; Schultz, M. J.; Scicluna, B. P.; Blodget, E.; Kumar, S.; Sampson, D.; Yager, T. D.; Davis, R. F.; Cermelli, S.; Brandon, R. B.

2026-05-29 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354135 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.2%
Show abstract

Background: Accurate early identification of sepsis remains a major clinical challenge due to its heterogeneous presentation and overlap of clinical signs with the non-infectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Timely differentiation is crucial for improving patient outcomes, meeting sepsis bundle requirements and reducing inappropriate antimicrobial use. We hypothesized that clinical and laboratory data available within the first 3 hours of patient presentation could be used to identify patients with sepsis to an actionable level of accuracy, in lieu of traditional microbiology results which would not become available until at least 12-24 hours. Data from two independent studies were used to quantify the diagnostic value of demographic, vital, clinical-laboratory, and microbiological data available at three time points for distinguishing retrospectively diagnosed critically ill patients with either sepsis or non-infectious SIRS. A particular focus of this work was an assessment of the utility of SeptiCyte RAPID (Immunexpress Inc., Seattle, Washington, USA) as an aid to sepsis diagnosis, producing actionable data within 1 hour. Methods: Data from two independent study cohorts were analysed. The 510k cohort consisted of 419 adult patients in intensive care (ICU) (MARS, VENUS, and NEPTUNE trials). The Andalusian cohort consisted of 353 ICU patients from the PANGEA study. Logistic regression models, selected by a greedy search algorithm and validated by repeated cross-validation, were used to determine the contributions of different variables to diagnostic accuracy. Diagnostic performance was quantified by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: For the 510k cohort, a baseline AUC of 0.69-0.73 was observed using 5-7 vital and demographic variables assessed immediately upon presentation (time T1). The addition of clinical-laboratory variables, in particular SeptiCyte RAPID, within 1-3 hours post-presentation (time T2) increased the AUC to 0.83-0.85). Finally, the addition of microbiological data 12-24 hours post-presentation (time T3) further improved the AUC to 0.90-0.91. Similar results were obtained for the Andalusian cohort. AUC values at the three time points were as follows: At time T1, AUC = 0.67 based solely on vital signs and demographics; at time T2, AUC = 0.87 based on vitals + demographics + SeptiCyte RAPID or other clinical laboratory data; at time T3, AUC = 0.93 based on vitals + demographics + SeptiCyte RAPID or other clinical laboratory data + microbiology results). For both cohorts, the most significant variables included temperature, mean arterial pressure, respiratory rate, suspected infection site; SeptiCyte RAPID, procalcitonin, confirmed bacterial infection and positive blood culture confirmation. Conclusions: Accuracy of identification of sepsis increases markedly as demographics and vital signs are supplemented with clinical-laboratory information, and ultimately with microbiological culture results. The fastest improvement occurs within the first 3 hours when laboratory data, and in particular SeptiCyte RAPID results, become available. Integrating rapid host-response testing with SeptiCyte RAPID into time-based diagnostic frameworks may enhance early sepsis recognition, improve antimicrobial stewardship, and support guideline-driven clinical decisions.

10
Plasma and CSF neurofilament light chain measured by Simoa and Lumipulse: an inter-platform comparison across neurological disorders

Toja, A.; Quaresima, V.; Tolassi, C.; Merati, T.; Trasciatti, C.; Signorini, S. G.; Morotti, A.; Berinato, F.; Poli, L.; Stabile, L.; Girotto, I.; Bertoni, M.; Zatti, C.; Magliozzi, A.; Martinuzzo, C.; Pangrazio, C.; Eshja, K.; Foresti, G.; Libri, I.; Rusi, E.; Bianchi, M.; Cristillo, V.; Volonghi, I.; Galli, A.; Rizzardi, A.; Caratozzolo, S.; Agosti, C.; Colao, R.; Rodolico, C.; Marcello, E.; Gardoni, F.; Di Luca, M.; Zetterberg, H.; Ashton, N. J.; Brugnoni, D.; Pilotto, A.; Padovani, A.

2026-06-02 neurology 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354573 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.0%
Show abstract

Introduction: Blood neurofilament light chain (NfL) is an accessible biomarker of neuroaxonal injury across a broad range of neurological disorders, but its clinical implementation requires robust cross-platform analytical and clinical comparability. The objective of this study was to evaluate the analytical and clinical comparability of plasma NfL measurements using Simoa and Lumipulse across different neurological conditions, by assessing cross-platform agreement and the ability of both assays to distinguish neurological diseases from healthy controls. Paired CSF analyses were performed in a subset of participants to biologically anchor plasma findings to the central compartment. Methods: 383 individuals were included, comprising healthy controls and patients with neurodegenerative conditions, multiple sclerosis and stroke. Plasma NfL was measured in all participants using both Simoa and Lumipulse, with paired CSF analyses in a subset of 92 individuals The Lumipulse testing intermediate precision and between-day repeatability was assessed as by the CLSI EP15. Cross-platform agreement for plasma NfL was evaluated using correlation analyses, Passing-Bablok regression and Bland-Altman analysis. Associations between plasma/CSF NfL concentrations were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation analysis for each platform, separately. Age-adjusted cross-diagnostic differences were evaluated using permutation ANCOVA and multiple linear regression models for each platform, separately. Results: Plasma NfL measured by Simoa and Lumipulse showed strong cross-platform concordance in the whole cohort ({rho}=0.90), with similarly strong concordance observed for CSF NfL in the subset with paired samples ({rho}=0.90). Method-comparison analyses in plasma demonstrated consistent agreement between platforms, with identifiable constant and proportional bias, alongside systematically higher absolute plasma NfL values measured by Lumipulse. Within-platform analyses showed significant correlations between plasma and CSF NfL concentrations ({rho}=0.72 for Simoa; {rho}=0.78 for Lumipulse). Noteworthy, Lumipulse NfL CSF and Blood kits exhibited high precision and analytical accuracy. Across both assays, plasma NfL increased with age and was significantly elevated in patients with neurological disorders compared with healthy controls. Discussion: Simoa and Lumipulse capture a consistent biological signal in plasma across patients with neurological disorders, although their absolute NfL values differ, supporting the use of platform-specific reference ranges in clinical practice.

11
Development and validation of a genome-informed multiplex PCR for specific detection of typhoidal Salmonella serovars

Jacob, J. J.; Thilagan, P.; Sathya Narayanan, P.; Santhosh, K.; Subbulakshmi, R.; Velmurugan, A.; Teekaraman, M. P.; Ponnusamy, N.; Neeravi, A. R.; John, J.; Walia, K.; Veeraraghavan, B.

2026-06-03 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.06.01.729223 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.7%
Show abstract

Enteric fever caused by Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A, B and C remains a major public health burden in endemic regions. Existing molecular assays frequently demonstrate limited specificity due to cross-reactivity with non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS). In this study, we developed and validated a genomics-informed multiplex PCR assay capable of simultaneously differentiating all four typhoidal Salmonella serovars. A curated dataset of 3,239 Salmonella genomes, including S. Typhi (n=361), S. Paratyphi A (n=453), S. Paratyphi B (n=511), S. Paratyphi C (n=62), and NTS genomes (n=1,853), was used for comparative genomic analysis. Thirty published PCR targets were evaluated in silico, followed by pangenome and SNP analyses to identify discriminatory loci for mismatch amplification mutation assay (MAMA)-based primer design. Candidate primers were validated using in silico PCR, BLASTn analysis, and laboratory testing against a panel of typhoidal Salmonella, clinical NTS isolates, and non-Salmonella bacterial pathogens. In silico evaluation demonstrated substantial cross-reactivity among many published targets, whereas SNP-informed primer design targeting staG (S. Typhi), SPA0152 (S. Paratyphi A), SPAB_03490 (S. Paratyphi B), and SPC_0571 (S. Paratyphi C) achieved predicted specificities of 98-100% while retaining high analytical sensitivity (>97%) across target genomes. Combined with a pan-Salmonella invA target, the multiplex assay precisely identified all target serovars in vitro with minimal cross-reactivity. These findings demonstrate that genomics-informed SNP-based primer design enables reliable multiplex differentiation of typhoidal Salmonella serovars and provides a scalable framework for improving enteric fever diagnosis and surveillance in endemic settings. ImportanceTyphoidal Salmonella serovars remain major causes of enteric fever in endemic regions, yet molecular differentiation from non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) remains challenging because of extensive genomic conservation and cross-reactivity of commonly used diagnostic targets. In this study, we combined large-scale comparative genomics of 3,239 Salmonella genomes with SNP-informed primer design to develop a multiplex PCR assay capable of simultaneously differentiating all four typhoidal serovars (S. Typhi, S. Paratyphi A, B, and C) from NTS and other non-Salmonella pathogens. Unlike conventional gene-content-based assays, this approach incorporated lineage-specific SNPs and mismatch amplification strategies to improve specificity while maintaining high analytical sensitivity. In silico evaluation demonstrated high diagnostic performance across diverse global lineages, while in vitro testing confirmed accurate serovar-level discrimination with minimal cross-reactivity. These findings demonstrate the value of population-scale genomics for molecular assay development and provide a scalable framework for improving diagnosis and surveillance of enteric fever in endemic settings.

12
Incremental Clinical Value of Single-Molecule Nanopore Sequencing in Thalassemia Testing: A Prospective Double-blind, Multicenter Study

Xiang, J.; Zhu, B.; Xu, H.; Chen, Y.; Sun, X.; xiang, r.; Zhao, Y.; Liu, W.; Zhang, L.; He, J.; liu, j.; Chen, Y.; Fan, Z.; Zhang, H.; Tan, J.; Pang, L.; Shi, L.; Kong, Y.; Cai, A.

2026-06-09 hematology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26354559 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.7%
Show abstract

Background Thalassemia is one of the most common monogenic disorders worldwide, current screening strategies combining hematological testing with molecular assays still carry a risk of missed diagnoses and undesirable efficiency, particularly for complex structural variants and rare mutations. Methods In this prospective double-blind, multicenter cohort study of 3,842 participants (3,362 pregnant women and 480 male partners), we conducted a head-to-head comparison to systematically evaluate the incremental clinical value and detection performance of single-molecule nanopore sequencing in thalassemia (SMITH) against conventional hematological testing and next-generation sequencing (NGS). Findings The overall concordance rate between NGS and SMITH was 98.6% (3789/3842). The discrepant cases (n=53) were directly attributed to the superior detection capabilities of SMITH, which successfully identified complex structural rearrangements-including 45 -globin gene triplications and four HK alleles-that were missed by NGS. Furthermore, SMITH accurately detected four rare variants (c.134_135insT/, c.-22(C>T)/, {beta}N/{beta}c.316-290delinsAGGGCAATAATTT and {beta}3.5 kb deletion/{beta}N ) and resolved ten trans and three cis configurations within the globin gene allele. Clinically, these technical advantages translated to a 9.3% (5/54) increase in the detection rate of high-risk prenatal couples, effectively preventing one birth affected by moderate-to-severe thalassemia. Additionally, SMITH corrected a diagnostic discrepancy in one case (HK vs. -3.7), sparing the couple from an unnecessary invasive procedure. Interpretation Our findings demonstrate that SMITH provides a powerful platform for resolving globin gene rearrangements, detecting rare variants, and enabling direct haplotype phasing. By effectively eliminating diagnostic blind spots, SMITH is expected to become an optimal method for thalassemia prevention programs. Funding This study was supported by Chinese National Natural Science Foundation Projects 81760037 and 82271894.

13
Cytoplasmic staining of T cell receptor components enables efficient assessment of lineage and clonality in surface CD3-negative T cell neoplasms

Wilk, A. J.; Gitana, G.; Oak, J.

2026-06-04 pathology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354783 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.6%
Show abstract

Flow cytometry can establish T cell clonality by detecting a restricted expression pattern of the T cell receptor (TCR) {beta} constant region (TRBC), expressed in association with CD3. However, T cell neoplasms frequently lose surface expression of the CD3/TCR complex, posing a challenge to demonstrating T cell lineage and clonality. To address this challenge, here we present a 12-color flow cytometry panel, called cytoTCR, to characterize cytoplasmic expression of CD3/TCR complex components. We apply cytoTCR to 38 patient specimens with immunophenotypically abnormal T cell populations, demonstrating this approach can efficiently establish T cell lineage and clonality in challenging T cell neoplasms that have lost surface CD3 expression. While we show that natural killer (NK)-lineage neoplasms can express cytoplasmic CD3 at similar levels to T cells, we show that absent expression of cytoplasmic TCR components by mature lymphocytes can help confirm NK cell lineage. We demonstrate that cytoTCR can detect cytoplasmic TRBC-restriction in challenging cases of null-phenotype anaplastic large cell lymphoma, which lack surface expression of pan-T cell antigens. In cases of T-lymphoblastic leukemia, cytoTCR shows that cytoplasmic TRBC expression matches the expected developmental stage of the leukemia. Finally, we use cytoTCR to characterize atypical cCD3-CD7- T cells in a patient with a history of T-lymphoblastic leukemia as well as recent CAR-T therapy, showing that this atypical population is polytypic and represents CAR-T product rather than residual disease. Our study presents a broadly applicable flow cytometric approach to simultaneously assess T cell lineage and clonality in suspected T lineage populations with absent surface CD3 expression.

14
Non-invasive Transcriptomic Cell Profiling of the Human Endometrium with Generative Deep Learning

Meltsov, A.; Falcon-Perez, J. M.; Matorras, R.; Apostolov, A.; Sola-Leyva, A.; Esteki, M. Z.; Salumets, A.; Aleksejeva-Zagura, E.

2026-05-20 obstetrics and gynecology 10.64898/2026.05.18.26352867 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
3.6%
Show abstract

Background Delineating the cellular origins of extracellular vesicles (EVs) enables the detection of clinically relevant changes in dynamic and complex tissues, such as the endometrium, which are not characterizable through single biomarker assays. Transcriptome deconvolution into cellular composition using deep learning methods provides a means to explore this complexity. However, such computational methods have not been previously applied to EV bulk transcriptomes, and their efficacy in profiling EV population changes and concordance to tissue throughout the menstrual cycle remains unknown. Methods This observational cross-sectional study utilized a deconvolutional generative deep learning algorithm, BulkTrajBlend, trained on a comprehensive human endometrial single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) atlas. The model was applied to deconvolve paired bulk transcriptomes from endometrial tissue and uterine fluid EVs (UF-EVs) across the proliferative (P, n=4), early-secretory (ES, n=5), mid-secretory (MS, n=5), and late-secretory (LS, n=5) phases from healthy, fertile women. To validate generalizability, independent UF-EV datasets (ES, n=12; MS, n=12) obtained via different laboratory protocols were included. Deconvolved pseudo-single-cell (pSC) profiles from UF-EV data were subsequently integrated with Visium spatial transcriptomics slides of human endometrium (P, n=2; MS, n=4; ES, n=2). Results We developed a foundation model-based approach utilizing self-supervised learning to determine the cellular origin of EVs from their transcriptomic profiles. By mapping the generated pSC profiles to spatial transcriptomic data, we evaluated spatial origins of EVs. The statistical analysis demonstrated that UF-EV transcriptome deconvolution reflects the dynamic changes in the cellular composition of endometrial tissue across the menstrual cycle phases. The ability to distinguish accurately between proliferative and decidualizing menstrual cycle phases (ROC-AUC = 0.98) using cellular profile of deconvoluted UF-EVs transcriptome enables non-invasive profiling of endometrial tissue. Conclusions Our findings indicate the feasibility of determining endometrial tissue cellular composition using UF-EV transcriptomics. This methodology enables refined, non-invasive endometrial testing, avoiding invasive biopsy procedures. Based on deconvolution results, we are able to correlate UF-EV content to tissue, and distinguish between menstrual cycle phases. These results build toward a multifactorial screening method for abnormalities within the endometrium.

15
A liquid biopsy-centered, pan-cancer, open next generation sequencing panel to support clinical decision-making (LION panel)

Feierabend, S.; Künstner, A.; Forster, M.; Helbing, T.; Gebauer, N.; Gemoll, T.; Axt, F.; Nimmagadda, S. C.; Ranganathan, L.; Schwandt, J.; Heber, M.; Szymczak, S.; Hohensee, I.; Fliedner, S. M. J.; Scherer, F.; Oberländer, M.; Derer-Petersen, S.; Busch, H.; von Bubnoff, N.; Dazert, E.

2026-06-08 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354976 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
3.6%
Show abstract

Cancer treatment has shifted toward personalized therapy based on molecular profiling, particularly in advanced disease. Existing circulating tumor DNA panels are often broad, generating many non-actionable variants and incurring costs that limit routine use in molecular tumor boards. We developed and validated a manufacturer-independent, 109-gene liquid biopsy-centered pan-cancer open next generation sequencing panel (LION panel), combined with an in-house bioinformatic pipeline to support clinical decision-making. A total of 87 samples were analyzed, including 17 reference samples, 21 healthy blood donor controls, and 49 patient samples including nine tumor entities. The LION panel achieved 92% sensitivity and 99% specificity in reference samples, with high concordance to digital droplet PCR (r = 0.99). It detected variant allele frequencies as low as 0.05% (tumor-informed) and 0.5% (tumor-uninformed). Clinical concordance reached 82% with blood-based digital droplet PCR and 75% with whole exome tissue sequencing. In representative cases, variant dynamics correlated with disease progression and revealed additional targetable variants. Overall, the LION panel supports clinical decision-making by enabling identification of targetable variants, disease monitoring, and detection of treatment resistance, particularly when tumor tissue is unavailable.

16
High Norovirus False Discovery Rates and Noro-1 Assay Cross-Reactivity in the BioFire FilmArray Gastrointestinal Panel

Mauer, C.; Reed, J. C.; Mack, A. R.; Theriault, E. A.; Tansarli, G. S.; Fang, F. C.; Bourassa, L.; Greninger, A. L.

2026-05-20 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353342 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
2.6%
Show abstract

Molecular syndromic panels such as the BioFire FilmArray Gastrointestinal Panel (BF-GIP) have been widely adopted for gastrointestinal illness diagnosis due to their fast turnaround times and broad pathogen coverage. Recently, the BF-GIP demonstrated increased rates of norovirus false-positive detections, prompting a Class II recall of more than two million tests in February 2024. We examined the prevalence of BF-GIP norovirus false positives across four hospitals from December 2024 to June 2025. Among 185 BF-GIP norovirus-positive results confirmed with the BD MAX Enteric Viral Panel, the false discovery rate ranged from 31 to 74% across sites, with the highest rate seen at a specialized cancer care hospital. Deep sequencing of BF-GIP pouches (n=42) confirmed the Noro-1 assay as the primary source of off-target amplification, identifying 78 off-target species, predominantly commensal stool bacteria, compared to only two species for the Noro-2 assay. Off-target species amplified by the Noro-1 assay were recovered from both false-positive and true-negative pouches, suggesting no single species accounted for the false-positive results. Partial primer complementarity at off-target loci and amplicon Tm values within the acceptable range support mispriming of gut microbiota as the underlying cause. False-positive pouches exhibited significantly higher Cp values than true positives for both assays (Noro-1: 26.6 vs. 11.1, p=0.013; Noro-2: 30.0 vs. 13.1, p<0.001), consistent with low-level off-target amplification. These findings highlight the high false discovery rate of the Noro-1 assay, identify bacterial species involved in mispriming, and demonstrate the need to redesign this assay to ensure reliable testing and improved patient care.

17
Dried blood spot proteomics as a diagnostic framework for citrin deficiency

Totsune, E.; Nakajima, D.; Konno, R.; Mikami-Saito, Y.; Arai-Ichinoi, N.; Nishida, H.; Yagi, H.; Ishige, T.; Suzuki, H.; Shirota, M.; Takayama, J.; Takano-Asai, C.; Shimura, M.; Sasai, H.; Lee, T.; Kido, J.; Nakajima, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Kikuchi, A.; Numakura, C.; Hamazaki, T.; Oishi, K.; Nakamura, K.; Kawashima, Y.; Ohara, O.; Wada, Y.

2026-05-28 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354012 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
2.1%
Show abstract

Background: Citrin deficiency, caused by biallelic pathogenic variants in SLC25A13, must be identified early to prevent serious complications such as hyperammonemia and liver failure. However, clinical diagnosis is often delayed due to its nonspecific presentation and limited sensitivity of amino acid-based newborn screening methods. Although genome-based evaluations are being investigated to address these issues, concerns about their cost, turnaround time, variant interpretation ability, and data handling highlight the need for a more practical yet reliable alternative. We investigated the feasibility of applying proteomic approach on dried blood spots (DBS), which are routinely used in newborn screening. Methods: We performed untargeted liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to analyze the proteome of DBS using a previously developed "non-targeted analysis of non-specifically DBS-absorbed proteins" (NANDA) workflow. SLC25A13 protein abundance was quantified in individuals with biallelic loss-of-function mutations, compound loss-of-function/missense mutations, and heterozygous carriers; this was also evaluated in healthy and diseased controls representing relevant differential diagnoses. To leverage proteomic information, we derived a multivariate proteomic signature using feature selection and evaluated its performance with leave-one-out cross-validation. Biological relevance was assessed by enrichment analysis, and complementary transcriptomics was performed using RNA sequencing. Results: A total of 7,474 proteins, including SLC25A13, were consistently detected in DBS. SLC25A13 was undetectable in individuals with biallelic loss-of-function mutations. However, individuals with compound loss-of-function/missense genotypes showed reduced but measurable SLC25A13 levels, comparable to those observed in heterozygous carriers. In contrast, a compact 15-protein signature accurately identified individuals with compound loss-of-function/missense genotypes (AUC, 0.99; sensitivity, 1.00; specificity, 0.95). The signature was enriched for Ca2+-response, and transcriptomics showed downregulation of genes related to multimodal ion channels in affected individuals compared to controls. Conclusions: DBS-based proteomic profiling may assist in the diagnosis of citrin deficiency through SLC25A13-quantification and a biologically plausible multivariate signature. More broadly, this strategy offers a promising new diagnostic layer for protein disorders, providing a proteomic readout in a clinically practical DBS format with potential utility for future diagnostic and screening applications.

18
Development and validation of a multiplexed quantitative PCR assay for clinical detection and surveillance of Oropouche virus

Stachler, E.; McMahon, K.; Gopal, N.; Knoll, H.; Baillargeon, K. R.; Mora, A. C.; Wondrash, H. A.; Sullivan, E. M.; Rush, S.; Gratalo, D.; Ozonoff, A.; Sabeti, P. C.; Springer, M.

2026-05-28 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354109 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
2.1%
Show abstract

Background Oropouche virus (OROV) is an emerging vector-borne virus with rapidly expanding geographic range, increasing case counts, and growing evidence of severe outcomes including neuroinvasive disease and vertical transmission. Because OROV infection presents with nonspecific febrile illness that overlaps clinically with other viruses including dengue, zika, and chikungunya, accurate molecular diagnostics are essential for patient care and surveillance. Yet existing assays rely on single genomic targets and are vulnerable to detection failure as the virus evolves and reassorts. Methodology/Principal Findings To support diagnostic capacity, we developed and clinically validated a multiplexed qPCR assay targeting three regions of the OROV S segment, incorporating redundancy to preserve sensitivity across viral diversity while enabling robust clinical interpretation. The multiplex also includes an assay targeting RNaseP as an internal sample control to ensure adequate sample processing. We evaluated assay performance using both historical and contemporary OROV strains and validated the assay on contrived serum, plasma, and cerebrospinal fluid samples, assessing linearity, limit of detection (LOD), accuracy, specificity, precision, and sample stability. The assay met or exceeded all predefined acceptance criteria for clinical testing and achieved an LOD as low as 6 copies per reaction for contemporary outbreak strains. We further implemented a logic-based interpretation matrix that reduced false-positive risk while maintaining sensitivity near the analytical LOD. Conclusions/Significance Our assay sensitively and specifically detects OROV RNA in serum, plasma, and cerebrospinal fluid while incorporating safeguards against viral evolution and reassortment. The assay has been approved for use by CLIA at Nexus Medical Labs in 49 U.S. states, expanding access to timely OROV diagnostics in the United States and providing a durable framework for molecular detection of reassorting, rapidly evolving viruses as OROV continues to spread into new regions.

19
Multi-Algorithm Machine Learning Benchmarking for Pan-Cancer Classification from Tumour-Educated Platelet RNA Sequencing

Ray, S.; Zalawadia, D. H.; Bhate, V.; Chakravarthy, T. D.; Chetty, A. G.

2026-05-26 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.05.22.727079 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
2.1%
Show abstract

Tumour-educated platelets (TEPs) carry cancer-type-specific RNA signatures accessible through whole-blood RNA sequencing, but systematic multi-algorithm benchmarking with quantified statistical uncertainty had not been applied to the GSE68086 dataset, the fields primary reference cohort. We applied an end-to-end transcriptomic and machine learning framework to 280 whole-blood platelet RNA-seq samples from six cancer types (non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer, glioblastoma multiforme, hepatobiliary cancer, breast cancer, and pancreatic cancer) and healthy donors. After a standardised preprocessing and normalisation pipeline, seven supervised classifiers - Logistic Regression, SVM (RBF), XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbours, and a Multilayer Perceptron were benchmarked using stratified 5-fold cross-validation and a held-out test set. Statistical uncertainty was quantified via 2,000-resample percentile bootstrap confidence intervals. Multinomial Logistic Regression achieved the highest test macro F1-score (0.522) and macro-averaged ROC-AUC (0.869), both substantially above the seven-class chance level (1/7 {approx} 0.14). SHAP analysis of the Random Forest classifier identified IFITM3 as the globally dominant TEP biomarker; cancer-type-specific discriminators included ATP5PD (hepatobiliary cancer), C6orf62 (NSCLC and pancreatic cancer), VPS13C (healthy donors), and TMSB4Y (breast cancer). Gene Ontology and KEGG pathway enrichment corroborated the biological specificity of identified transcriptomic signatures. These results support the diagnostic potential of TEP transcriptomics as a multi-class liquid biopsy platform and provide a methodologically transparent, reproducible reference framework for future blood-based cancer classification studies.

20
Development and validation of a digital pathology artificial intelligence (DPAI)-based biomarker predicting risk of Gleason grade group reclassification for patients who are candidates for active surveillance

Mabey, B.; Lenz, L. H.; Schiewer, M. J.; Rayford, W.; Muhammad, H.; Huang, W.; Finch, R.; Nakamoto, C.; Kouros-Mehr, H.; Jasper, J.; Basu, H.; Feng, C.; Sharma, A.; Wilding, G.; Roy, R.; Muzzey, D.; Gutin, A.

2026-05-20 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353328 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
2.1%
Show abstract

Aims Active surveillance (AS) allows selected men with localized prostate cancer to defer curative therapy and reduce treatment morbidity. Conversion from AS to treatment is commonly triggered by Gleason grade group (GGG) upgrading on confirmatory biopsy. We developed and validated a digital pathology artificial intelligence (DPAI) biomarker to predict GGG upgrading in AS-eligible patients. Materials & Methods The DPAI model was trained using histopathology image features from diagnostic biopsies of 998 patients and validated in an independent cohort of 296 patients meeting criteria for AS. Logistic regression estimated the probability of confirmatory-biopsy GGG increase, and feature selection identified the most predictive variables. Results AI-GUR (Artificial Intelligence-Gleason Upgrade Risk) predicted GGG reclassification at confirmatory biopsy (OR 1.60; p=0.0003), and provided information beyond conventional stratification (risk group, CAPRA) and cribriform morphology (all p<0.01). Predicted risks were similar across time from diagnosis (~10-15% to ~85% at 1, 1.5, or 2 years; p for time=0.50), consistent with initial biopsy mischaracterization rather than time-dependent progression. Conclusions AI-GUR provides individualized estimates of confirmatory-biopsy GGG upgrading for AS candidates. Using DPAI may improve shared decision-making by complementing standard clinicopathologic tools and molecular testing using the same biopsy specimen, while informing the likelihood of grade upgrade at confirmation.